中美作物贸易关系弱化加剧影响全球环境【转】
*中文标题和摘要系简单翻译，可能存在部分错误，请以英文为准
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Guolin Yao, Xin Zhang, Eric A Davidson, Farzad Taheripour. The increasing global environmental consequences of a weakening US–China crop trade relationship. Nature Food, 2021, 2(8):578–586. DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00338-1
摘要：
对中国进口美国农产品征收关税的考虑主要集中在经济影响上，而对环境后果的关注较少。基于特定区域和特定作物数据库，我们使用全球可计算的一般均衡模型来评估中国报复性农业关税引起的长期作物组合变化，从而评估不同作物生产组合施加的环境压力。我们表明，随着农民从大豆转向更多造成污染的作物，中国的关税导致美国氮磷污染和海水提取意外增加。如果转移到巴西，中国的大豆需求将通过改变作物组合来减少巴西对氮污染和用水的压力，但可能会增加磷污染和森林砍伐的额外压力。在全球范围内，贸易政策可以通过促进在养分和水资源利用方面效率最高的地方进行作物生产，从而减少养分污染和水资源枯竭。
Abstract:
The consideration of tariffs on China’s imports of US agricultural products has focused on economic impacts, while the environmental consequences have received less attention. Here we use a global computable general equilibrium model to evaluate long-term crop portfolio changes induced by China’s retaliatory agricultural tariffs and thereby assess the environmental stresses imposed by different crop production portfolios based on region-specific and crop-specific databases. We show that China’s tariffs cause unintended increases in nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and blue water extraction in the United States as farmers shift from soybeans to more pollution-causing crops. If diverted to Brazil, China’s soybean demands would reduce Brazilian stresses of nitrogen pollution and water use through crop portfolio changes, but may add additional pressures on phosphorus pollution and deforestation. On a global scale, trade policies could help to reduce nutrient pollution and water source depletion by promoting crop production where it is most efficient in terms of nutrient and water use.
原文链接（点击“阅读原文”跳转）：
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00338-1
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撰文编辑：王煜正
审核：龙文进